Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra and Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird might face off in the rubber match in the Belmont Stakes. Who will win?
Mine that Bird reminds me of Seabiscut. He's little, has an odd gate, and likes to have a target to run at. That being said... I think Rachel could win the Belmont. Her stride is so long and flowing, like Secretariat. My guess is she will break away from the other horses around 3/4 mile pole and keep on going... winning by over 10 lengths.
#1 - Sun May 17, 2009 12:45 PM EDTWhat have you been drinking? Mine That Bird will blow that filly away if she runs in the Belmont, which I think she wont even attempt to win the Belmont.
"That filly" put in a time 12 seconds less than Mine that Bird's win at the Derby in the Kentucky Oaks the day before. She proceeded to beat him at the Preakness and you think Mine That Bird has a chance... why??? Borel rode them both in Kentucky and chose Rachel because she has more talent. She's a clear cut leader.
The Mine That Bird comparisons to Seabiscuit are interesting. He is similar in appearence
and has great heart, IS he Seabiscuit ? of course not, there will never be another Biscuit.
The big misconception about the Biscuit is he was an Over-achiever, an Underdog...he
was the Grandson of Freaking Man'O War! He was no underdog. He was bred for
greatness, just needed to be in the hands of the right people to figure him out.
But I think Mind That Bird takes the Belmont because of the distance. If the Preakness
were 50 yardslonger, he would have taken that too.
Comparison of Mine That Bird to Seabiscuit is pretty good - HOWEVER! Look at Rachel Alexandra next to Phar Lap - uncanny!
My money would be on Rachel - even though the others had to run to catch up to her (and to a point, she let them), she will fly at the Belmont!
Mine That Bird Streach run is the best givin the longer race he would have left the filley in the dust.
#2 - Sun May 17, 2009 12:59 PM EDTi agree 500%...mine that bird will without a doubt win the belmont. if mike smith is up, he will have no problem passing and surpassing the entire field. the preakness would've been won by the bird as well had he not gotten cought up early, and had he had just a few more feet at the end
Rachel will win because Mine That Bird is a come from behine horse. The race is too long for him to make up the ground before Rachel crosses the finish line. Even if they tries to run him neck to neck with Rachel will bust his heart at her pace. So either way MTB is not strong enough to win to beat Rachel at that distance. Be real..
#3 - Sun May 17, 2009 1:04 PM EDTThis is an interesting theory you have, I must admit.
She seems strong, and he is small, but I think the big picture requires a different result and you should see my response below as to a more thourough analysis. But in a nutshell, MTB appears to have a good bit of Arab mixed in which means he is very durable and should have a lot of stamina, being able to handle the heat well and he will handle the sandy surface just as well. That being said, I think the opposite theory holds true, the long track doesn't mean he has a longer distance to make up, she only gets as far ahead as he lets her. The longer track I think only means that he has more time and room to catch her, two things he simply ran out of at the Preakness. She didn't beat him or run away from him, he simply needed another 20 to 25 feet to catch her, as he rapidly was doing in spite of being boxed and hit as he just was really getting into his move. At Belmont Park he will have this and more. She's good and she is fast but he is the greatest come from behind if not the greatest performing horse I've ever seen and I've been watching a long time, thanks to you tube I've even seen the oldsters, including Seabiscuit. If injury is avoided, he'll be racing a long, long time. If she does too, she may have her occaisional day in the sun, but if she gives him his rematch at Belmont this won't be one of them. No one else is even in his class especially when the jets come on and he sees the front.
Dave B.
I think it depends a lot on the jockey. If Rachel Alexandra runs with Borel as her mount, she's got a great shot at it, even with the extra distance, especially since he said she "struggled" with the track at Pimlico. If she gets a hard track at the Belmont we may be able to see her at her best. However, if she doesn't run, and Borel is on Mine that Bird, he's a shoe-in with that incredible closing, even if he has to go off the rail. Just watch the Preakness again to see how quickly RA closed the gap from being in 13th post position to getting on the rail, and MTB having to skirt all the way out, and then closing in on her, even after having started his move far beforehand. They are both amazing horses in their own right, with two very different styles. It may come down to track conditions and how the rest of the field runs (possibly blocking the rail again). It's going to be an exciting three weeks leading up to it, and an exciting two minutes when we get there!
#4 - Sun May 17, 2009 1:04 PM EDTIt depends on the track. If it's hard and fast, Rachel could win going away. If it's soft and she struggles like she did in the Preakness, the longer race will go to Mine That Bird. He could have taken her if he had another 1/8th yesterday.
#5 - Sun May 17, 2009 1:08 PM EDTHe could have taken her with another 5-6 strides! She was lucky the track ran out for MTB. He was crushing the field the last 3 furlongs. She'll challenge in the Belmont but, MTB will win going away.
RA and MTB are the two best horses running this year, but I gotta say, "I believe MTB is going to kick a-- at the Belmont. I'm so proud of that little horse. He reminds me of Seabiscut too, and just as capable. Run Birdy Run. I'm so excited for him and me. I can't wait for the race.
#6 - Sun May 17, 2009 1:30 PM EDTANother 1/8 yesterday and we are talking about the next triple crown winner. And MTB ran with a different jockey. Mike Smith with three weeks will make the difference. And any horse not familiar with Belmont's stretch will fade like old jeans. I think RA fades like Smarty Jones. MTB is a great horse!
#8 - Sun May 17, 2009 2:25 PM EDTI love it when people just give opinions and dont actually look at the facts. Opinion, MTB would have caught Rachel if the race was longer, fact, if the race was longer Calvin B. would have never allowed her to set the testing :46 3/5 half mile pace. Thats simple horse racing, The commentators including Mr. Gary Stephens both point out that at no point during the race and also the gallop out did MTB ever pass the filly, I know that there is a question about who was best on the day so we can break it down.
"Out of the gate the filly stumbled a bit, MTB broke cleanly and was covered up as they made their way under the line the first time. Big Drama was on top and Rachel found her way over, at this point MTB is on the rail and Rachel is in the 4 path. This means she is the widest horse in the race. Big Drama is 3 wide Rachel is 4 wide and MTB again is on the fence in the first turn. MTB probably ran a ¼ in: 26 as Rachel ran that in: 23. Coming out of the back stretch, Rachel is still in the 3 path and MTB swings out into the 5 path and as they turn for home the race is on, Rachel wins by 1 length. So who was better on the day, it’s a very good question, Rachel is 4 or 5 wide in the first turn and 3 or 4 wide in the far turn coming home, MTB is on the fence on the first turn and is 5 wide turning for home. When you break that down into lengths, she ran farther than 9 lengths total which is 2 1/5 seconds more running compared to MTB running 5 or 6 lengths wider which is only 1 1/5 or 1 2/5 seconds more running.
Everyone thinks that because it was a shorter race that MTB was compromised, not a correct assumption, in a 1 ½ mile race like the Belmont, Calvin would take her back to 2nd or 3rd and let her stalk on the outside and make 1 run, she wouldn’t go to the lead, and you can be sure the pace in that race would not be :46, it would be more like 48 3/5 or like in 2007 in the Belmont the pace was almost :50 for a half, this scenario compromises MTB because without a strong pace to run into closers have more to do because the pace setters have much more left. They can call out Rachel if they want to but you can believe every race is run according to its scenario, this was a shorter race, therefore Calvin could do more on the front end with her and her class continued to show, in longer races she’ll stalk and rate much easier, this was her first time with huge males breathing down her neck, and she extended a little more because he had to push the button to get over from 13, if she runs in the Belmont which I hope she doesn’t but if she does and she is the same Rachel, she’ll win on the wire by 3 or 4 lengths."
#9 - Sun May 17, 2009 3:25 PM EDTThis is by far the most accurate break down of the race yesterday. You point out what everybody else forgets - that Rachel had to run a longer total distance. This isn't about MTB would've won if the race were 1/16 longer because if the race were 1/16 longer, Rachel would'nt have set the pace she did and she'd have had more at the end. I agree that if Rachel runs and she recovers from the Preakness, she could easily win the Belmont.
Yeah, lets look at the facts. Mine that Bird and ALL the male horses carried 126 lbs except for the filly whose impost was only 121lbs. That extra 5 lbs means 5 extra lengths at the finish or 1 1/5 second faster due to this handicap. So why do they add extra weight to horses? To give lesser horses an advantage over better horses to make betting more interesting. Rachael had a clear path the entire race, Bird didn't. In fact he was fouled by Flying Private around the turn, then had to run wide after being bumped. Bird still only "lost" by 3/4 length but if he carries the same weight as Rachael or a longer race he beats her hands down. Add that to your "facts".
Since Borel said that RA doesn't like a soft track, Belmont will not be good for her - it is soft and a little deep. So I think that scrappy little MTB will stalk again and come home winning, even though the stretch at Belmont is awfully long.
#10 - Sun May 17, 2009 3:26 PM EDTwithout a douby mine that bird will win the belmont, hands down. he would've won the preakness had it not been for being bunched up and if the race had been a few more feet longer, he would have had it.
#11 - Sun May 17, 2009 3:43 PM EDTMine that bird! What a power house! With a half decent start at all, the rest of the field doesn't stant a chance! It could be many years before we see another horse of this quality!
#12 - Sun May 17, 2009 4:36 PM EDTRachel Aleander is a superhorse she will win I think . She reminds me of Genuine Risk a lot shes as Genuine as they come. Ithink that Genuine Risk got a real dirty deal in the preakness, nothing against Codex, but save for his jockey hitting Genuine Risk in the face with his crop he would have been soundly beat.
I have 2 questions what is the breeding behind RA, and if she wins the Belmont what are her chances being named Horse of the yr.
#13 - Sun May 17, 2009 5:32 PM EDTShe has to compete with the likes of Zenyatta and even MTB for Horse of the Year honors. To me? Zen's a freaking BEAST! She is undefeated and she runs just like MTB which to me is the most exciting run style. But, RA will definitely be there after these two impressive wins and possibly a second place at Belmont. Yeah, she doesn't stand a chance to hold off MTB in the mile-and-a-half distance. If you look at the last 1/16th of a mile you can see every whip that Mike Smith gave MTB he reacted with more push. He never gave up and still had a lot of glide when he pulled him up at the wire. The guy talking about RA running more distance and pace setting could be right. However, I seriously doubt RA has the stamina to keep that pace for another 13/16ths.
Rachel Alexandra's Father is Medalglia D'Oro his big wins came in the
San Felipe Stakes (2002)
Jim Dandy Stakes (2002)
Travers Stakes (2002)
Whitney Handicap (2003)
Oaklawn Handicap (2003)
Strub Stakes (2003)
Donn Handicap (2004)
Belmont Stakes 2nd place (2002)
and her mother is Lotta Kim was a very nice racemare, winning the Tiffany Lass Stakes at Fair Grounds, and finishing a credible second in the Golden Rod (G2) at Churchill. Her dam’s sire, Roar, was a winner of the Jim Beam Stakes (G2, now known as the Lane’s End at Turfway) and bred in the purple, being a son of champion Forty Niner from the mare Wild Applause (by Northern Dancer and closely related to Kentucky Derby Sea Hero). Roar’s second dam is Broodmare of the Year Glowing Tribute, she being a daughter of Graustark from one of the most productive branches of the La Troienne family.
As for Horse of the Year, she is currently the front runner.
#14 - Sun May 17, 2009 6:38 PM EDTI have to say that you are probably correct about HOY. If Zenyatta would have raced instead of being scratched she would have been 10-0 and almost a lock for HOY. Zenyatta is a VERY good horse. Love her style. Just like MTB. I heart closers.
Mine that Bird. Positively. The 1 1/2 miles of Belmont sets up perfectly for a come from behind horse like MTB and usually the smaller Belmont field will mean MTB does not have to go 8 wide and lose ground at the head of the stretch. As much as I think Rachel Alexander is a super filly I don't think the grueling 1 1/2 miles of the Belmont would suit her durability at this stage of her running career.
#15 - Sun May 17, 2009 7:37 PM EDTThe little guy, Mine the Bird is the best race horse I've ever seen period. He appears to have an extra dose of Arabian blood in there somewhere, given his scoopy, shapely face and somewhat smaller stature, but what that equals is a lot of stamina, very little reaction to heat if any, and somewhat larger hooves to handle the sand and loose surfaces better. His heart can't be beat and as said here earlier, if he's given his target, the afterburners come on with the odd but ideal combination of an extreemly long stretched out stride that he can still take quicker steps with than his competition. The Derby was no contest, Borel couldn't even believe what was happening to start with until he just let him go. The short distance of the Preakness is often the achilles heel of a "come from behind, give me the target" type horse and so it happened here. Mike Smith, the new Jockey after Calvin jumped ship to Rachel, said that if he had the rail the result would have been different. He also said that MTB collided with the horse outside him no less than 3 times as he tried to counter the push that was being made to trap him inside when they came round the final turn, and enough so that he broke stride. He said he too was in disbelief when the little guy picked it back up within just a couple steps, set his sights on Rachel and he never even had to go back to the whip after the little guy regained that rhythm. And therein may lie just another of those little intangibles. Clearly Smith understood his mount better, petted him and praised him often before and after the race and there was visibly a better connection. Borel wants to be the star it seems, Smith made it clear that Mine the Bird is the star in his mind and I think rightly so. Speed, drive, stamina, style, heart, he's the best I've ever seen run.
Rachel Alexandra is clearly a great horse, a wonderful speciman, of this there is no doubt. But many things determine true greatness when you're up in that heady company. As far as he knows, Mine the Bird in his brain believes he won, Smith saw to that, and if just one of the array of things that went wrong for him hadn't maybe happened, he would have overcome just having 20 feet too short of a track in this one! Think of it; the Jockey, even though I'm frankly now convinced Smith is the better choice anyway, leaves to ride the big money favorite. As the little guy stands in the starting gate the horse next to him rears up repeatedly, throws off the Jockey, delays things. He is denied even a fair shot at the rail by the 7th and 8th place runners as he trys to make his move, just having passed 4 horses in about 5 seconds. He comes to the outside, is hit 3 times, looses his stride, forces his way back out, hits the jets and comes within 10 feet of another win, and the rider of the filly complains that she was having trouble with the track and he had to go to the whip with her for the first time. Its ok Calvin, she's a great horse; he's just a better one. He proved it against the odds again, in spite of you. You don't need to make excuses. If you're happier riding her more power to you, but it isn't anything you did really except getting her to the right place at the start. The rest was taken care of for you back in the pack. Worried she can't hold him off at that big track upstate? You should be, because its up to the two of them up there by and large. Wanna jump back on him like some people are saying? If I were his owners and trainer, the Cowboys as I like to call them, I'd say forget it, we've got our Jockey so at least our horse won't have to go through that again. Likewise, Rachel Alexanra's owners should run her there as nothing could be better for the sport than a genuine rivalry like this one can be and she and he should be well rested. You just stay there with her. Then when he wins, which he clearly should if he doesn't get hurt, ( as a longtime horseman really all of these horses are too young to race in these events, 5 or 6 when their bones are more developed and frames better balanced would be an ideal starting age, and even at that, MTB is very, very young, JUST having turned 3 ) everyone will recognize who the true star and winner was in this years triple crown, most likely this wonderful little $9000 athlete, not his big buck rivals nor any self promoting Jockey.
His story is not one to rival the great Seabiscuit's or the other great come from behinder and maybe greatest race horse of all time, the big gray, Native Dancer. It is and I think will be a story to surpass all. Not to mention, he and his owners and handlers are having fun as they busily get ready to go on up to New York and train for now in Louisville, a Cinderalla story already that can only get better. God willing he should still be running when he's 10, but you never know, so come on Rachel and your owners, join in the fun, and this means you too Calvin, don't deny your former horse or your current horse their just due in the limelight on the chance that you might look bad.
God's blessings to all of you, and, as for you, Mine the Bird, come on little fella, anything is possible and you can do it, because, YOU CAN! Our prayers are with all for a good safe race for everyone, horse, jockey and handlers alike.
David A. Bayer
Kenosha, Wis.
#16 - Sun May 17, 2009 9:03 PM EDTI agree with all you say here. Do you remember Afleet Alex? Closest we've come to a TC winner in nearly 30 years at that point in 2005. Remember he nearly bit the dust coming home in the Preakness when Scrappy T cut him off and J. Rose somehow, miraculously, stayed on top of Alex? Yeah, that horse. The one who had to be weened by hand from a bottle because his mother couldn't produce enough milk to feed him (if I remember correctly). Alex just missed in the Derby. He was bumping all around the field trying to come out of the pack, boxed in. He came out made a valiant run at the wire but just was out of gas and Giacomo took the win by a few lengths. Then he almost falls in the Preakness and somehow rights himself (with help from J. Rose) and BOOM explodes to a 3 length win. But, his most impressive win of all came in the test of champions, the Belmont Stakes. He went straight to the rail and relaxed about 10 lengths off the pace of 49.xx seconds for the first 1/2. With about 1/2 mile left he slowly started to make his move and gaining momentum for the home stretch run. I remember Durkin's call of the race and how emotional it was. "And here comes GIACOMO! And Jeremy Rose STILL has yet to make a move with Afleet Alex......(then coming through the last turn to the home stretch) Afleet Alex just passed Giacomo like he was standing still......Afleet Alex opening up with a TREMENDOUS BURST OF ENERGY!" Besides Dave Rodman's call in that year's Preakness, Durkin's Belmont call is my favorite of all time! My favorite horse of all time is Afleet Alex and he's the closest we've come to a REAL TC contender in the past 30 something years. Now we have another smallish closer to come closer than Alex! MTB is my second favorite horse of all-time! Love the little guy!!!!
Cheers to MTB! My grandpa is Dr. Blach of Buena Suerte Equine....a more deserving man would be hard to find in something as wonderful as this! Here's to the little guy, and on we go to Belmont!
#17 - Mon May 18, 2009 12:18 AM EDTRachel Alexander blew me away! I did not see her run in the Kentucky Oaks but if she led that race by 20 1/2 lengths she has a great shot at the Belmont, however Mine That Bird is good at starting from the rear and making his way towards a victory. Mine That Bird is little and thats why it is so easy for him to sneak his way up! If you noticed in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness he was a surprise to even the announcers! Mine That Bird may just sneak his way into the Belmont for a surprise VICTORY!
#18 - Mon May 18, 2009 3:03 AM EDTMTB was forced wide and bumped at the top of the stretch and still almost caught her. 70 yards more and we have a different winner. The long stretch at the Belmont is perfect for MTB. I think they would be foolish to run Rachel, but if they do she'll show at best.
#19 - Mon May 18, 2009 4:05 AM EDTCheers to MTB! My grandfather is Dr. Leonard Blach of Buena Suerte Equine....a more deserving man of a horse like MTB would be hard to find...so here's to Chip, Mike Smith, the owners, and of course MTB...its fun to give America a ride like this. On to Belmont we go!
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THIS HORSE IS A POWER HOUSE! THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN FOR QUITE SOME TIME! WITH A DECENT START, THERE'S NO COMPETITION!